(ST AUGUSTINE, Fla.) - As an element of its ongoing public outreach efforts, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District, hosted more than 40 St. Augustine residents to the city’s Willie Galimore Community Center April 24, for a semi-annual workshop to discuss its ongoing St. Augustine Back Bay Coastal Storm Risk Management Feasibility Study.
The workshop focused on presenting study findings since the working group’s initial design charrette in February 2023. USACE staff specialists presented an in-depth analysis of potential impacts over 50 years into the future arising from a range of risk factors, including storm surge and sea level rise. Potential damages from today until 2085 were calculated by running hundreds of computer model storm simulations.
The modeling revealed that by the year 2085, the combination of sea level rise, tides and storm surge could reach elevations of 12 to 15 feet NAVD88 in extreme cases. NAVD88 – also known as
the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 – is the standard baseline sea level elevation currently in use for engineering purposes.
By comparison, Hurricane Matthew, which in 2016 produced the highest locally recorded water levels in recent history, produced a peak water level of about 7 feet NAVD88. The majority of future damages to St. Augustine are expected to result from storms that produce water levels in the 8 to 10 feet NAVD88 range.
It is estimated that damages to structures and their contents, both public and private, would run in to the billions of dollars. The study also projects that 75 percent of resulting damages would affect the city’s historic downtown area.
This assessment, known as the FWOP, or Future Without Project condition, will serve as the basis for determining the effectiveness and benefits of alternative solutions as the study team moves ahead with next phase of their efforts: evaluating a range of possible plans to best address the threats that can be expected if no preventative efforts were to be made.
“It just scared the heck out of me, talking about $2 to $3 billion of damages,” said City of St. Augustine Commissioner Cynthia Garris, who attended representing West Augustine area communities.
“I’m not giving up hope, I’m just being practical. I’m a realist,” she said.
Lincolnville neighborhood resident Julio Torres came away with a more positive reaction to the range of potential damages presented and the scope of solutions under consideration.
“All the different techniques they’re considering and magnitude of the task at hand, it’s impressive,” said Torres, whose neighborhood experiences significant flooding during major storm events.
“There are so many options,” said Yolanda Garcia-Ditmore, a St. Augustine resident for 40 years. “There’s not just one option, it’ll have to be a combination. I realize these people have done an unbelievable amount of work.”
City of St. Augustine chief resilience officer, Jessica Beach, and National Park Service representatives made presentations as well, focusing on a variety of initiatives the city is taking in addition to its partnership with Jacksonville District, and on issues pertaining to the Castillo de San Marcos Historical Monument.
The evening concluded with open discussion among residents and study members organized around the study’s three main geographical segments – Downtown Peninsula, Davis Shores Peninsula and Western San Sebastian.
A follow-on public workshop will take place in the autumn; details will be advertised well in advance. Public participation is strongly encouraged as a means of incorporating residents’ issues and insights in the study’s progress. In the meantime, residents are invited to join the study group’s monthly public webinars, which are conducted online on the third Thursday of every month.
For information on joining those online events, an archive of the study’s public discussions to date, and additional information and resources available regarding the study’s aims and progress, go to the Jacksonville District study webpage at https://www.saj.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Shore-Protection/St-Johns-County/City-of-St-Augustine-Florida-Back-Bay-Feasibility-Study/.
The public can obtain news, updates and information from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Jacksonville District on the district’s website at www.saj.usace.army.mil, on Facebook at www.facebook.com/JacksonvilleDistrict, Twitter at www.twitter.com/JaxStrong, and Instagram at www.instagram.com/jacksonvilledistrict.